Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 15.692909 17.890028 20.244316 22.950012 25.968858 29.228593 33.009828
2025-08-24 12.336740 15.315693 18.745500 22.967444 28.004266 33.799364 40.948915
2025-08-31 10.471377 13.741662 17.685435 22.756495 29.065119 36.613084 46.280948
2025-09-07 9.182505 12.665721 17.043387 22.893042 30.440944 39.781664 52.135404
2025-09-14 8.401125 12.092943 16.898760 23.532095 32.356172 43.585500 58.832983
2025-09-21 7.443738 11.164901 16.174995 23.306740 33.070512 45.824612 63.571012
2025-09-28 6.387753 9.978423 14.975577 22.305691 32.623679 46.443751 66.126527
2025-10-05 5.998261 9.697422 14.990901 22.952662 34.420614 50.101005 72.862945
2025-10-12 5.603808 9.364209 14.890762 23.403607 35.934963 53.404708 79.220106
2025-10-19 5.097152 8.807866 14.410153 23.248354 36.543650 55.437690 83.852662
2025-10-26 4.633155 8.272442 13.912509 23.018034 37.003312 57.245477 88.200300
2025-11-02 4.283070 7.887137 13.611514 23.054336 37.840241 59.606312 93.406031
2025-11-09 3.989858 7.577589 13.417108 23.257416 38.961171 62.464612 99.512429
2025-11-16 3.673584 7.199692 13.082944 23.212154 39.687491 64.756447 104.863373
2025-11-23 3.364327 6.802818 12.682312 23.021136 40.153332 66.644339 109.641223
2025-11-30 3.141891 6.541240 12.487956 23.151337 41.126629 69.333791 115.721947
2025-12-07 3.023932 6.462180 12.600430 23.799504 42.965169 73.431967 124.116097
2025-12-14 2.779635 6.119236 12.220282 23.570926 43.328087 75.192657 128.885934
2025-12-21 2.446650 5.570006 11.425687 22.560203 42.309975 74.676640 129.992415
2025-12-28 2.369712 5.527893 11.560731 23.213535 44.163318 78.890567 138.839603
2026-01-04 2.271729 5.433139 11.588537 23.669022 45.686023 82.604434 146.982474
2026-01-11 2.106432 5.180840 11.295994 23.512207 46.115728 84.501959 152.187473
2026-01-18 1.946250 4.923957 10.975112 23.279592 46.391448 86.138034 156.995924